Mikhailov Dmitry Vladimirovich (graduate student
Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin
Ekaterinburg
)
Tarasyev Alexander Alexandrovich (PhD, Docent
Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin
Ekaterinburg
)
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Relevance: The topic of the ripple effect in real estate markets is widely presented in the foreign scientific economic literature, including studies in Europe, the USA, and Asia. At the same time, this topic has not become relevant in relation to the real estate market of the Russian Federation. Given the geographic and demographic uniqueness and the level of digitalization of the Russian Federation, we can expect to receive biased data on a new national version of the manifestation of the ripple effect, which will enrich and generalize knowledge on this topic.
Subject of the study: Open data from Rosstat on the quarterly real estate index from 8 regions for the period from Q1 2000 to Q4 2023 were used.
Objective of the work: to conduct a study of the ripple effect of regional residential real estate markets in the Russian Federation.
Methods: During the study, an approach was developed to identify the ripple effect using a line of more advanced methods for discovering the cause in dynamic systems, taking into account synchronous effects, latent confounders, and datasets of real short-series data.
Results: The main result can be considered the absence of evidence of interregional causal relationships between quarterly indices of residential property prices in the studied regions.
Scope: Identifying the independence of risks and opportunities in markets of different regions is important for diversifying investment portfolios; testing methods for discovering causes in dynamic systems updates the methodological bar for future research.
Conclusion: No basis has been identified for including the interregional market information component in the real estate pricing model for a region of the Russian Federation.
Keywords:Regional economics, ripple effect, causal graph, real estate, Granger test, cause discovery, pricing, latent confounders
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Read the full article …
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Citation link:
Mikhailov D. V., Tarasyev A. A. ON IDENTIFYING THE WAVE EFFECT BETWEEN REGIONAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION // Современная наука: актуальные проблемы теории и практики. Серия: Естественные и Технические Науки. -2026. -№01. -С. 127-135 DOI 10.37882/2223-2966.2026.01.23 |
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